The WTA Rome tournament second round continues on Friday. The WTA is a very competitive tour right now. No one expected Marta Kostyuk to win Madrid. Will we see a completely unexpected champion in Rome? The French Open could be a lot more wide open than many people think. Will the coming days in Italy shake up the tour even more, or will we see the top players take command and remind everyone they are still the ones to beat in women’s tennis? Heading into the weekend, it’s time to see if chaos will continue to reign on the WTA Tour. LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA Rome
Potapova – Muchova: Time 6:30 EST
H2H: 1-4
This is a very interesting match. Anastasia Potapova made the semifinals of Madrid and has won three matches in Rome this week, two in qualifying. She has been collecting a lot of wins lately. Karolina Muchova made the final in Stuttgart and is having a terrific season. However, she fell ill and did not play in Madrid, meaning that she hasn’t played tennis in a few weeks and might be a little rusty. It’s one player who has been playing a ton of tennis versus another player who has been idle for multiple weeks. It’s a rest versus rust situation.
Best Bet to Make
It’s true that Muchova could be rusty here, but Potapova had to play the qualifying rounds in both Madrid and Rome. She actually lost in the Madrid qualifying rounds, but she got into the main draw as a lucky loser and went all the way to the semifinals. Now she is playing a fourth match this week in Rome. Potapova is not as talented as Muchova, and she has to be tired. At some point, she will run out of gas. Muchova has been playing well in 2026. Maybe if she was struggling, she wouldn’t be worth backing here, but because she has been really good this season, she should be picked to win straightforwardly. The price is great.
That being said, betting on Muchova winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Muchova winning 2:0 @2.25 @unibet
Keys – Stearns: Time 6:30 EST
H2H: 0-2
Madison Keys and Peyton Stearns have played twice. Both matches went three sets with Stearns winning both. One of the two matches ended with Keys retiring. One of the matches was last year in Rome, with Stearns winning in a third-set tiebreaker. Madison Keys has not played since Charleston, more than one month ago. She was supposed to play in Madrid but fell ill and did not play in the tournament. Stearns has been regularly playing the tour in recent weeks but is 2-3 in her last five matches.
Best Bet to Make
This is an interesting betting situation. Keys is priced as high as a 1.62 moneyline favorite (Betfair), and Stearns winning one set is priced at 1.60. It opens the door for you to consider Keys in a moneyline parlay but Stearns in a standalone set spread bet. If you felt really adventurous, you could go for the Stearns moneyline, but Stearns’ current run of form is not that convincing. Stearns winning a set makes sense, though, because Keys has been away from the tour for five weeks and is likely to be rusty.
That being said, betting on Stearns +1.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Stearns +1.5 sets @1.60 @betway
Osaka – Lys: Time 7:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Naomi Osaka often struggles on clay, but she had a very solid Madrid tournament. She advanced to the Round of 16 and gave top seed and World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka a tough test before losing in three sets. Osaka showed that she is capable of playing well on clay. Eva Lys, her opponent in this second-round match, is 2-2 in her last four matches and is trying to develop some momentum just before the French Open begins.
Best Bet to Make
Naomi Osaka looked reasonably comfortable on clay in Madrid. She is a far better player than Eva Lys. If she plays anywhere close to the level she displayed in Madrid, she should be able to win this match convincingly. Lys doesn’t have the firepower to stay with Osaka from the baseline. Osaka should be able to play this match the way she wants to and maintain control from start to finish.
That being said, betting on Osaka winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Osaka winning 2:0 @1.83 @1xbet
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
