When the French Open began, Jannik Sinner was one of the biggest favorites in a men’s singles draw at a Grand Slam ever. Now that he lost in the second round to Juan Manuel Cerúndolo, the upset has made tennis history in two different ways.
Sinner was -300 to win the French Open before the tournament, a rarely-seen pre-tournament 1-to-3 payout for a title. That means you would have had to bet $300 on Sinner to win $100. Per Sports Odd History, only Rafael Nadal in 2009, also at Roland Garros, was a bigger favorite (-400) to win a Slam since betting odds have been recorded. Ironically, Nadal also didn’t win that tournament (Roger Federer won his only French Open instead).
It’s a bit unusual that Sinner was such a dominant favorite when he hasn’t won a French Open yet in his career, but that was a little skewed because two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz did not enter the tournament due to injury. That said, Sinner lost to Alcaraz in the final last year in an epic five-set match that went to a deciding tiebreak in the final set. Sinner had three championship points in that match. He also entered the French Open on a 29-match winning streak, which got extended to 30 when he won in the first round.
Sinner, the World No. 1 and a four-time Slam champion, had been dominating clay-court season, and the French Open was expected to be the culmination of that.
As for Thursday’s match, Sinner was -50000 at DraftKings to win before it started. The implied odds for that are 99.8 percent. Record-keeping on individual matches is harder to come by, but -50000 is just about the limit of what sportsbooks will offer for one match. Those odds imply Sinner was given a 99 percent chance of winning against Cerúndolo. You’re running up against math to go much further than that.
So Thursday’s loss led to an early exit for one of the biggest pre-tournament Grand Slam favorites in recent history and was also one of the biggest upsets in a single match ever.
Anyone who watched the match knows Sinner wasn’t beaten at his best. He was cruising along with a 6-3, 6-2, 5-1 lead before the Paris heat got to him. Then his body fell apart. He was stretching his right quad when he was up two breaks in the third set. It was clear Sinner was not moving as well during and between points.
When Sinner was serving for the match up 5-2, he was broken at love and double-faulted the last point of the game. In his second chance to serve out the match, Sinner double-faulted the first point and then was broken at love. Sinner did have a break point early in the fourth set after holding his first service game of the set, but continued to struggle. Cerúndolo won 18 of the final 20 games to win 3-6, 2-6, 7-5, 6-1, 6-1.
With Sinner out and Alcaraz not taking part in the tournament, this is now a massive opportunity for the rest of the field. This ends the streak of nine straight Slams won by either Sinner or Alcaraz. In 2023, before that streak started, Novak Djokovic won three of the four Slams. Djokovic is not the current favorite, that’s Alexander Zverev, but Djokovic is second in the odds, giving him perhaps the last best chance for him to add to his record tally of Slam titles (24).
While play is still happening on Thursday, Zverev is +180 to win the French Open on DraftKings. Djokovic is +400. Casper Ruud (+700), 19-year-old Spaniard Rafael Jódar (+750) and American Ben Shelton (+1400) are also high on the odds board.
