Gold (XAU/USD) recovers slightly from over a one-week low, touched earlier this Friday, though the upside potential seems limited in the face of a bearish fundamental backdrop. Against the backdrop of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish tilt, the uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations continues to push the US Dollar (USD) higher for the third straight day. In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, shot to a fresh high since May 2025 and should undermine demand for the commodity.
The US central bank decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged in its current 3.5% to 3.75% target range at the end of the first meeting under the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. However, the so-called dot plot indicated that nine of the Fed’s 19 committed members believed that they would need to raise the policy rate this year if inflation remains sticky. Furthermore, Kevin Warsh’s comments during the post-meeting press conference focused strongly on price stability, suggesting that the Fed might not rush to cut interest rates even in the face of declining growth.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 70% chance that the US central bank will hike rates in September. This keeps US Treasury bond yields elevated and continues to support the buck. Meanwhile, the optimism led by an interim US-Iran peace deal fades as key issues between the two countries remain unresolved. Moreover, US Vice President JD Vance canceled his planned trip for talks with Iran in Switzerland, saying that the meeting wasn’t yet finalized. Adding to this, Israeli air strikes in Lebanon threaten to unravel the US-Iran deal.
Any signs of renewed escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations could further boost the safe-haven USD. Meanwhile, the liquidity is likely to remain low amid a US bank holiday in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day. Nevertheless, the Gold seems poised to register losses for the third straight week as the market focus remains glued to further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold might struggle to register any meaningful recovery amid bearish setup
From a technical perspective, this week’s repeated failures to breakout through the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the subsequent slide favor the XAU/USD bears. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 36, reflecting weak demand rather than outright oversold conditions. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays in negative territory with the line below its signal and a subdued histogram, which suggests ongoing downside pressure.
Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA at $4,358.53 is the first meaningful resistance, and bulls would need a daily close above this level to ease the current downside bias and hint at a more sustained recovery phase. Until then, the XAU/USD pair remains vulnerable to further declines, and further fresh selling is likely to be driven by momentum rather than by interaction with a specific technical floor on the daily chart.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
