PARIS — With a forehand from Juan Manuel Cerúndolo that curved across the Court Philippe-Chatrier clay, the 2026 French Open men’s draw became a sea of opportunity.
Cerúndolo, the world No. 56, knocked out Jannik Sinner, the overwhelming favorite and world No. 1, on Thursday afternoon at Roland Garros. Sinner led 6-3, 6-2, 5-2 as he served four points from victory, but a combination of illness and heat sapped him of his energy. Cerúndolo went on to win in five sets, 3-6, 2-6, 7-5, 6-1, 6-1, ending Sinner’s hopes of completing the career Grand Slam by winning his first French Open title.
With that, the two biggest stars of men’s tennis were out of the running. Carlos Alcaraz never even made it to Paris: The two-time defending champion withdrew with a wrist injury, which is set to keep him out until at least Wimbledon.
With the third round yet to even start, who has the best shot to win this thing? The Athletic’s tennis writers make their case.
Alexander Zverev
It’s well documented that near-misses can lead to a buildup of psychological scar tissue. And with three Grand Slam final defeats, there’s no doubting that Alexander Zverev has had plenty of those.
What the near-misses also illustrate is a player mostly doing the right things. If they keep doing them, they might just get over the line eventually, if luck goes their way.
That’s what I expect to happen with Zverev at this year’s French Open. All three of his final defeats have been to better players: Dominic Thiem at the 2020 U.S. Open, Carlos Alcaraz at the 2024 French Open and Jannik Sinner at the 2025 Australian Open. Even though he was close against the former two, they were still matches he was expected to lose.
Now, should he get to the final, Zverev will be the favorite. While that brings pressure, the finals tend to be won by the higher-ranked, more experienced player.
A potential semifinal against Novak Djokovic could be hard, but Zverev is an excellent clay-court player, and it feels as though his time is about to arrive.
— Charlie Eccleshare
Alexander Zverev has been to three Grand Slam finals but has never won one. (Alberto Pizzoli / AFP via Getty Images)
If Casper Ruud beats Tommy Paul in their third-round match Friday, Zverev will be on his way to his first Grand Slam title.
After (hypothetically) beating Paul, Ruud would then have a fourth-round matchup with Djokovic. If Ruud doesn’t end up beating Djokovic — there’s an outside chance there, for a man who’s played two French Open finals — he’ll siphon enough gas from his tank to leave Djokovic physically weakened enough to fade against Zverev in the semifinals.
The 29-year-old German is still one of the five best active clay-court players in the world, who will no doubt want to avenge his lackluster showing against Djokovic in the quarterfinals last year. If Djokovic is already beaten up, and if Zverev’s tetchy back stays in good shape, he’ll have a chance.
It almost feels silly not backing the 24-time Grand Slam champion in this situation, given that the heat in Paris is supposed to break by Sunday, ushering in much cooler, more tolerable conditions. Still, Djokovic played his opening-round match here on a pleasant night and despite his four-set win over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, he didn’t look particularly fluid then, either. His forehand, especially, looked sludgier than usual. Djokovic has done so many impossible things in tennis. The possibility of this one might be what gets him.
— Ava Wallace
Novak Djokovic
He’s the best men’s clay-court player of the last four decades not named Rafael Nadal. He’s done everything else that everyone else said was impossible. He’s won 24 Grand Slam titles. He’s won here four times. He won the Olympic gold medal less than two years ago, on this court. He made the semifinals of all four Grand Slams last year and the final of the Australian Open in January.
Djokovic, 39, knows what golden opportunities look like. He won this tournament in 2021 after he knocked out a still potent Nadal. He won it again in 2023, when Nadal was injured. No one is better at playing his way into form during a Grand Slam than Djokovic. He played one match during the clay-court season ahead of Roland Garros and lost it. He’s played two matches so far this week. Neither one was perfect. Mpetshi Perricard was blasing serves for a while in the first. It was blazing hot against Valentin Royer and he should have won in three sets rather than four.
He needs one more win, against a 20-year-old João Fonseca who is full of talent but lacks big-match experience to get through the heat wave. Then he’s in the second week, and it’s on.
— Matt Futterman
Novak Djokovic may see this as his best chance for a 25th Grand Slam title. (James Fearn / Getty Images)
Learner Tien
Strange things happen when Grand Slam draws open up. A lot of them are circumstantial — to the tournament, to the players left, to the conditions — but one of them is almost guaranteed. The pressure of expectation and opportunity arrives, and the nerves begin to jangle. At the 2020 U.S. Open, Zverev and Thiem played in the vacuum of an empty stadium because of Covid-19 protocols, but also under the weight of an opportunity that might never come again.
Zverev and Djokovic, who will see this as a beautiful opportunity for Grand Slam title No. 25, are in the opposite half of the draw to Sinner’s. Ruud, the two-time French Open finalist, is there too. That’s the attrition half. Whoever makes the final is going to be the favorite and run something of a gauntlet to hold that title.
Were it not for the shift toward grey, cloudy and cooler conditions in the second week, Ruud would be the pick to win it all. No one from the bottom half will win the title.
The other half feels like the opportunity half. No. 4 and No. 5 seeds Félix Auger-Aliassime and Ben Shelton top the bill. They’ve both been to Grand Slam semifinals, but the second half of the tournament promises sludgier conditions, which will test their point construction, blunt their serves and ask their return games to do things they largely can’t.
Is Learner Tien a dark horse for the French Open title? (James Fearn / Getty Images)
The clutch of Argentine players will face a similar problem. 2021 finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas likes it hotter too. And a few players in that half have shown promise, but lack either the high-profile wins that are proof of concept for making it happen at major, or the reliable floor that can hold up against external pressure. Flavio Cobolli, Tien’s opponent in the third round, is in the latter category.
Yes, Tien. Tien has those proof-of-concept wins. He doesn’t really rely on quick conditions. He doesn’t really love clay either, but he does love building a point. And no, he hasn’t been to a Grand Slam semifinal or final, but of everyone left in Sinner’s half, he appears best placed to get through a heavy second week.
— James Hansen
Moïse Kouame
Given the draw is so wide open, why not go for the plucky teenager thrilling his home crowd? First and foremost, he has the clearest support advantage of any of the contenders, and in this heat, that can make a huge difference. The 17-year-old also has a free hit with nothing to lose. The pressure is off, and each new win is a bonus.
Kouame has already shown his fearlessness, dismantling 2014 US Open champion Marin Čilić in the first round before outlasting Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, the world No. 71, in the second. His five-set second-round match against the Paraguayan proved he is mature beyond his years, can channel his emotions with a positive outcome, come back from adversity, manage a match tactically and hold his nerve.
There are obvious cons here, and they are mostly the opposite side of the reasons why he can win. Kouame lacks Grand Slam experience. He hasn’t been there and felt what a quarterfinal or a semifinal does to him. Fatigue may be kicking in. Winning Roland-Garros is unrealistic — but so was Sinner’s exit. Stranger things have happened.
— Charlotte Harpur
Moïse Kouame has made the 2026 French Open his breakout Grand Slam. (Virginie Lefour / Getty Images)
Who do you think is going to lift the title? Tell us in the comments …
