The WTA Rome tournament Round of 16 is played on Monday. The WTA’s Sunday schedule was surprisingly lopsided. Seven of the eight matches were straight-set wins, and none of those seven matches were closer than 6-4, 6-3. Players with large game spreads were able to cover them. Underdogs got pounded, with the one exception being Nikola Bartunkova upsetting Madison Keys in the day’s only three-set match. Will we see another day with favorites dominating, or will the underdogs bounce back? LWOS has our best bets for four matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA Rome
Svitolina – Bartunkova: Time 9:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
The story of Nikola Bartunkova is fascinating. A lucky loser hasn’t made the Rome WTA Round of 16 since 2013. Bartunkova ended that 13-year drought by getting this far. She lost in the qualifying rounds but caught a huge break when Victoria Mboko withdrew late with an illness. Bartunkova took full advantage. She beat Madison Keys in the third round, winning in three sets. She lost the second set 6-1 but was able to bounce back in the final set to score the biggest win of her career. Now we get to see if she can follow it up against Elina Svitolina, an experienced, proven, top-15 player who has a real chance at the title in Italy.
Best Bet to Make
Bartunkova is a great story and a player who is competing really hard, but this feels like the place where the fun stops and Svitolina takes over. Svitolina already stopped another hot player, Hailey Baptiste, in the third round. She crushed Baptiste in a lopsided match. Svitolina should be able to do the same thing to Bartunkova. Svitolina to win in straight sets is priced at just 1.55, though. Since we want to give you a better price, -5.5 games is something Svitolina should be able to cover. The value is a lot better.
That being said, betting on Svitolina -5.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Svitolina -5.5 games @1.90 @Betway
Pegula – Potapova: Time 10:00 EST
H2H: 5-0
Jessica Pegula scored a rare 6-0, 6-0 win in the third round. She had the easiest match of the whole Rome tournament against Rebeka Masarova. With the Round of 16 being played one day after Pegula’s third-round match on Sunday, Pegula should be physically fresh. That quick match could come in handy. However, Pegula is facing a red-hot opponent, Anastasia Potapova. She reached the Madrid semifinals and continues to win a ton of matches. She came through qualifying to make the Rome Round of 16. She just defeated Liudmila Samsonova in the third round.
Best Bet to Make
This is a tough match to call because Potapova is in great form, but Pegula had a really easy and quick Sunday match. Plus, Pegula is 5-0 head-to-head against Potapova. We have been trusting Potapova in recent bets, but the head-to-head is hard to ignore. Plus, if this match gave both players a day off (playing Tuesday after a Sunday match instead of Monday after a Sunday match), we might be more inclined to take Potapova. However, Pegula is likely to be a little more energized because she spent so little time on court in the third round. The moneyline and set prices aren’t great, so go with the game spread. The evenly-priced spread is 3.5, minus and plus. We’re going to go with Pegula.
That being said, betting on Pegula -3.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Pegula -3.5 games @1.97 @1xBet
Osaka – Swiatek: Time 12:00 EST
H2H: 1-2
Naomi Osaka versus Iga Swiatek is the big headline match for the WTA on Monday in Rome. The two played a memorable French Open match two years ago in which Osaka came extremely close to victory, but Swiatek responded well under pressure and won 7-5 in the third set. Osaka and Swiatek both played really well in their most recent Rome matches. They both won in straight sets and will try to carry that form into this battle.
Best Bet to Make
Naomi Osaka isn’t a great clay player, but she plays well against the stars. She played well against Aryna Sabalenka in Madrid. She lost, but she won a set and pushed Sabalenka into a third set. Swiatek did dominate in her most recent match against Elisabetta Cocciaretto, but that could be a reflection of how much Cocciaretto is struggling this year. One match might not mean Swiatek is all the way back. Osaka is likely to put up a fight, so bet on Osaka making the match close.
That being said, betting on Osaka +1.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Osaka +1.5 sets @2.30 @1xBet
Pliskova – Rybakina: Time 14:30 EST
H2H: 0-4
Karolina Pliskova, in her mid-30s and having endured multiple surgeries, had to take time away from the tour last year for her second pregnancy. She fell dramatically in the rankings and was recently on the border of the top 200. Now she is about to return to the top 100 due to a great run of form in Madrid and Rome. Pliskova won a match that went past the three-hour mark in the second round against Jaqueline Cristian. Then she easily defeated fellow veteran Laura Siegemund in the third round. She will face No. 2 seed Elena Rybakina, who has moved smoothly through the first few rounds of the Rome tournament.
Best Bet to Make
Karolina Pliskova is playing great tennis right now, but being roughly a decade older than Rybakina could hurt her since the Sunday third-round match and the Monday fourth-round match have no day off for extra rest. Pliskova might need that rest. Therefore, Rybakina should win, and a Rybakina moneyline should be folded into a parlay. However, in terms of a straight bet on this match, the market prices are so heavily tilted to Rybakina that there isn’t a lot of value in Rybakina winning in straight sets (only 1.55). This is a game spread match, and while Rybakina is extremely likely to win, Pliskova can probably keep this somewhat close. If it’s a 6-4, 6-3 match for Rybakina, Pliskova would still cover the spread.
That being said, betting on Pliskova +5.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Pliskova +5.5 games @1.91 @BetVictor
Main Photo Credit: Jay Calderon-USA TODAY Sports
