Jessica Pegula makes her return to the tour as she begins her European clay-court adventure at the WTA Madrid Open. The Charleston Open champion takes on former British No. 1 Katie Boulter. Who will reach the third round?
WTA Madrid Day 4 Predictions
Madison Keys vs Shuai Zhang
Head-to-head: Zhang 5-3 Keys
It’s quite incredible that Keys has a losing record against Zhang. The Chinese veteran was a Top 50 mainstay when she often came out on top in this matchup. And it’s been five years since Zhang upset Keys. A repeat result in Madrid is highly unlikely. Zhang’s recent form against big hitters hasn’t inspired much confidence. And Keys is right up there as an elite ball striker. Zhang will struggle to absorb the sheer weight of Keys’ ground strokes.
Prediction: Keys in 2
Linda Noskova vs Emiliana Arango
Head-to-head: first meeting
For Noskova, Stuttgart was a positive start to this year’s clay-court swing. The Czech reached the quarterfinals and lost to Elina Svitolina. She has posted 13 wins in 20 matches this season and is on the brink of breaking into the top 10 for the first time. Arango earned a creditable straight sets win over rising Australian Talia Gibson in the first round. But the Colombian will be in defensive mode for most of this match. That should offer Noskova ample short balls to attack.
Prediction: Noskova in 2
Elise Mertens vs Alexandra Eala
Head-to-head: Mertens 1-0 Eala
Mertens is a former quarterfinalist in this tournament, but she has not advanced to the last 16 in each of the last two editions. Against Eala, rallies can get chaotic and it is where the 20-year-old tends to step in and take initiative. Eala is coming off a straight-sets win over former French Open finalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. But Mertens is vastly experienced in resetting points. She serves solidly and rarely gives away cheap errors. I’m backing Mertens to edge this.
Prediction: Mertens in 3
Jessica Pegula vs Katie Boulter
Head-to-head: Pegula 1-1 Boulter
Pegula returns to action for the first time since that successful title defense in Charleston. It was probably her toughest title run, needing to go the distance in each of her first four matches. But she should be well rested after skipping the WTA 500 in Stuttgart. Boulter owns a 3-2 record this swing and she recorded a fine win over Taylor Townsend this week. But clay is still the Briton’s least favorite surface. I’m firmly backing Pegula, who is suited to play in these conditions efficiently.
Prediction: Pegula in 2
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
