The clay courts at the WTA Mutua Madrid Open are in full swing on Day 4, with second-round matches mixing players who have built steady form this season against those relying on past clay know-how. Recent results on the dirt, how well they move and rally on it, and any history between them will matter a lot here. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the schedule. But who will advance?
WTA Madrid Day 4 Predictions
Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Kenin
Head-to-Head: Zheng 2–0 Kenin
Zheng has played only a handful of matches this season because of an elbow issue, but her clay record in recent years speaks for itself–she reached the Rome semifinals and French Open quarterfinals–and she won the Gold Medal at the Paris Olympics, on the clay of Roland Garros. She moves well on the surface and her power can still dominate when she gets the timing right. Kenin fought hard for a first-round win here and showed some fight on clay in Charleston, but her 2026 season has been tough overall. Zheng’s pedigree on this surface should help her settle in quickly.
Prediction: Zheng in 2
Zeynep Sonmez vs Cristina Bucsa
Head-to-Head: Bucsa 1-0 Sonmez
Sonmez has been one of the more impressive young players this year, posting solid clay results including a strong showing in Stuttgart where her backhand looked dangerous. She won her opening match in Madrid comfortably and seems to be building momentum. Bucsa claimed a title earlier in the season and earned a direct entry here, but clay has never been her favorite surface and she has looked more comfortable on hard courts lately. Sonmez’s current level and extra time on the dirt give her the edge in what could be a close contest.
Prediction: Sonmez in 3
Simona Waltert vs Jelena Ostapenko
Head-to-Head: First meeting
Waltert has shown she belongs on clay this spring, winning matches in qualifying and the first round with clean ball-striking and good footwork. She has steadily improved her game on the surface. Ostapenko, a former French Open champion, can produce brilliant tennis when her big serve and forehand are firing. She has looked dangerous in patches this year but her results have been streaky. The Latvian’s experience and raw power could turn the match her way if she finds rhythm early.
Prediction: Ostapenko in 3
Victoria Mboko vs Caty McNally
Head-to-Head: Mboko 1–0 McNally
McNally has battled well on clay in smaller events and picked up a solid first-round win here. She knows how to construct points. Mboko, ranked inside the Top 10, has had a strong season overall and reached the second round with a bye. Even though this is her first clay tournament of 2026 after some time away, her athleticism and ability to hit through the court give her plenty of weapons. Mboko’s higher level of consistency should carry her through.
Prediction: Mboko in 2
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images
