The contrasting fixtures of title rivals Arsenal and Manchester City’s could persuade many managers in Fantasy Premier League to go against Erling Haaland (£14.7m) with the captaincy in Gameweek 37.
On Monday evening, Arsenal play at home against a Burnley side who have the worst defensive away record in the Premier League – they have conceded 45 goals in 18 contests and are without a single clean sheet.
It’s very likely, then, that the Gunners will go on the attack and look for goals and a win that would put them five points ahead of Man City, who play their Gameweek 37 match at AFC Bournemouth the following evening.
That appealing fixture has made Arsenal forward Viktor Gyokeres (£9.0m) and midfielder Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) big targets ahead of Friday’s 18:30 BST deadline, with the pair among the three most-bought players thanks to 249,000+ and 162,000+ transfers in respectively.
Bournemouth’s record at Vitality Stadium suggests they will put up far more resistance than Burnley – the Cherries have collected six clean sheets in 18 home matches and have conceded only 19 goals.
By also factoring in big chances, which are situations where a player is expected to score, it’s clear to see that Arsenal attackers have the advantage.
Watch: Experts reveal their captain picks
Burnley have conceded 53 of them in away matches, the second-most in the league.
In home matches, on the other hand, Bournemouth have allowed only 19 big chances, the BEST record in the league.
Team defensive stats, 25/26
| Club* | Big chances conc. | Goals conc. | Clean sheets |
| BUR (A) | 53 | 45 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOU (H) | 19 | 19 | 6 |
*For Burnley away matches and Bournemouth home matches
Who’s in the best form?
Certainly, Haaland has form very much in his favour. He’s scored in each of his last four matches and also supplied an assist to total 31 points.
His team-mate Jeremy Doku (£6.5m) and Bournemouth’s Rayan (£5.4m) also feature among the top-scoring attackers in Fantasy over their last four matches, with 33 and 28 points respectively.
Nottingham Forest’s Morgan Gibbs-White (£7.5m) and Manchester United midfielder Casemiro (£5.9m) are also in-form assets who face each other this weekend. The former is, however, a doubt for the Old Trafford contest due to a head injury.
Meanwhile, Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (£8.7m) has amassed 27 points in his last three starts, scoring three goals and supplying an assist. Head coach Unai Emery is expected to field his strongest team at home to Liverpool, as a win for Villa would clinch their place in next season’s UEFA Champions League.
Most points, last four matches
| Player | Pts | G+A | Blanks/Starts |
| Gibbs-White | 39 | 6 | 1/3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doku | 33 | 4 | 0/3 |
| Haaland | 31 | 5 | 0/4 |
| Casemiro | 30 | 2 | 0/4 |
| Rayan | 28 | 4 | 0/3 |
| Watkins | 28 | 4 | 1/3 |
Scroll across to see the full table on mobile
Who’s had the most attacking threat?
The underlying statistics also back up Haaland‘s return to his very best form over his last four matches.
His 10 big chances and 17 shots in the box are both at least twice the totals of every player in the table below apart from Brighton & Hove Albion’s Jack Hinshelwood (£5.2m).
Meanwhile, Leandro Trossard (£6.5m) is the only Arsenal attacker to feature here, claiming joint-second with six big-chance involvements alongside Hinshelwood and Watkins.
Trossard has had two big chances and created four of them for his team-mates in his last four matches.
Brentford’s Igor Thiago (£7.3m) and Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes (£10.4m) also feature here and also have kind home matches, facing Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest respectively.
Fernandes’ record at Old Trafford under Michael Carrick shows why he is among the very best alternatives to Haaland. In those eight home matches, the Portuguese has averaged 8.3 points per match and has no blanks.
Player attacking stats, last four matches
| Player | Big-chance inv. | Big chances | BCC* | Shots in box |
| Haaland | 10 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hinshelwood | 6 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| Watkins | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| Trossard | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Osula | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| Calvert-Lewin | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| Thiago | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| Fernandes | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
*Scroll across to see the full table on mobile. BCC = Big chances conceded
Who’s facing the worst defences?
Everton pair Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (£5.3m) and Beto (£5.0m) can offer great value at home to Sunderland this weekend.
The Black Cats have conceded 13 big chances in their last four matches, the same number as relegated Wolves.
Brentford’s Thiago will be encouraged by Palace’s poor showings at the back, with the Eagles conceding a league-high 11 goals across their last four matches.
Liverpool’s numbers also show why Watkins backers should be happy to hold. The Reds have conceded 11 big chances and are without a clean sheet in their last four, exactly the same as Burnley.
Team defensive stats, last four matches
| Club | BCC* | Goals conc. | Clean sheets |
| Sunderland | 13 | 10 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves | 13 | 8 | 0 |
| Crystal Palace | 12 | 11 | 0 |
| Everton | 12 | 9 | 0 |
| Brentford | 12 | 5 | 2 |
| Fulham | 12 | 4 | 2 |
| Burnley | 11 | 10 | 0 |
| Liverpool | 11 | 6 | 0 |
*Scroll across to see the full table on mobile. BCC = Big chances conceded
So, who’s the best captain?
Arsenal will also be looking to boost their goal difference on Monday evening and Burnley’s defensive frailties make it hard to look past Arteta’s key attackers.
Both Saka and Gyokeres strengthened their claims as recently as Gameweek 35 by delivering double-figure hauls at home to Fulham.
But it was Saka who was the difference-maker in the Gunners’ next home match, scoring the decisive goal against Atletico Madrid to secure his side a place in the UEFA Champions League final.
He’s also created a chance every 18 minutes since returning from injury in Gameweek 33 to underline his potential for assists.
Gyokeres’ very unreliable home form – with eight blanks in 12 starts – shows the big risk attached to backing the Swede.
Instead, it’s Fernandes who looks the next best alternative to Haaland.
The Portuguese has eight double-figure hauls and just three blanks in 16 home matches this season, showing the high upside and consistency of his Old Trafford displays.
