Oracle’s results due after thr market close Wednesday come at a critical time for the artificial intelligence trade. Shares of Oracle are up 32% year to date, but the cloud infrastructure company has seen shares crater more than 33% in the past three months on concern about its debt level and the financial viability of its massive AI deals . The stock caught fire after Oracle announced a $300 billion deal with OpenAI in early September, involving a five-year agreement requiring Oracle to also provide about 4.5 gigawatts of electric power. Oracle raised $18 billion in a bond sale, one of the largest debt issues on record in the tech industry. Analysts expect Oracle to earn $1.64 per share, excluding one-time items, on revenue of $16.21 billion in its fiscal second quarter ended Nov. 30. In its previous quarter , the company posted adjusted earnings of $1.47 per share on revenue of $14.93 billion. The stock soared 30% following the OpenAI deal as investors cheered the company’s massive jump in remaining performance obligations, or future revenue that has not yet been recognized. Sentiment on Oracle has swooned since then, leading to a range of opinions on the stock from Wall Street analysts, detailed below. Analysts polled by LSEG have a consensus price target of $335, implying more than 50% potential upside over the coming year. The highest price target is $400 while the lowest is at about $175, signaling a wide divergence among analysts. Of 47 total investment ratings, 13 analysts rate Oracle a strong buy, 20 have a buy and 12 rate it an underperform. Only two analysts of have an underperform rating on Oracle. JPMorgan, which only rates Oracle a neutral, said management could signal a diversified list of customers beyond ChatGPT, easing pressure on the stock. Several analysts have noted the recent sell-off in the stock could also pave the way for a buying opportunity and an eventual rebound. Take a look at what Wall Street is watching for in Oracle: Wells Fargo: Overweight rating, $280 price target “We see ORCL emerging as a leader in the AI super-cycle: nearly half a trillion in AI deals already booked & pole position w/ key accts (OpenAI, xAI, Meta, TikTok),” analyst Michael Turrin wrote in a Dec. 3 note to clients. “We see ORCL set to reach similar scale to next closest hyperscaler by 2029, underpinned by success landing numerous major AI infra projects (most notably OpenAI’s 4.5GW / $300B+ compute contract). We est OCI will reach ~16% of the cloud market by 2029, up sharply from just 5% in 2025, though still trailing AMZN/ MSFT at 30%.” JPMorgan: Neutral, $270 “In our view, sentiment has tended to swing too far and too fast in both directions without allowing for a reasonable assessment of middle-ground outcomes,” analyst Mark Murphy said in a Tuesday note. “Diversifying the RPO balance across an expanded list of investment-grade AI customers would be one positive step, which we believe is very likely to be announced on Wednesday. Other potentially helpful commentary, for which we have absolutely no idea if Oracle would comment, could include Oracle’s assessment of the quantum of debt capital raise required in the next several years, likely cost of capital, clarification of the ~$300B contract (max ceiling vs. hard fix, etc.), delineation of prepayment/ credit assurance mechanisms, timeframe for returning to positive FCF, amount of financing secured at fixed rates, when CapEx would peak as % of revenue, clarifying any linkages between Gemini models and OCI, etc.” Deutsche Bank: Buy, $375 “More so than any quarter we can remember, we expect headline financials to be less of a primary focus when Oracle reports F2Q results on Wednesday Dec. 10th. Following a > 30% drop over the past 2.5 months, there appears to be a clear disconnect between the current share price and FY30 guidance provided by mgmt. just in October (see our note The bear case looks… bullish) that we believe boils down to confidence in the long-term prospects of not only Oracle but its large AI customers as well. Nothing the company reports or says this quarter can settle this; however, we do think greater clarity on the upcoming CapEx cycle and financing could provide investors some incremental comfort in more fully underwriting these targets,” analyst Brad Zelnick said in a report on Monday. Jefferies: Buy, $400 “Our proprietary survey shows a slight q/q uptick in infra, apps and AI pipeline growth, but no breakout. Focus in F2Q is on backlog growth, AI debt financing, and capital allocation … We see more upside than downside,” analyst Brent Thill wrote in a Monday note to clients. Barclays: Overweight, $330 “We see AI bubble fears creating an “all or nothing” mindset for shares and an attractive entry point. Q2 should see another big ($50bn+) RPO add, a sharp OCI accel from Phase 1 of Abilene, and soothing mgmt comments re risks,” analyst Raimo Lenschow said in a Monday note, lowering his price target $70 to $330.
