Liverpool aren’t quite in the Champions League next season just yet even if it will take a remarkable set of results to stop them on Sunday
Everyone associated with Liverpool will be glad to see the back of a difficult, dismal, disappointing campaign. But there’s a chance – no matter how slight – the season could be extended beyond Sunday’s final Premier League game at home to Brentford.
Bournemouth’s 1-1 draw at home to Manchester City on Tuesday evening not only handed the title to Arsenal and ensured European qualification for the Cherries, it also meant they cannot finish with more points than fifth-placed Liverpool.
But while Bournemouth were the only side after last weekend’s results who could knock the Reds out of a Champions League qualification berth, the job isn’t quite done yet for Arne Slot’s side, even if it would take a remarkable last day to deny them their place among Europe’s elite.
A defeat for Liverpool against Brentford and victory for Bournemouth at Nottingham Forest would move the teams level on 59 points.
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However, with the Reds having a superior goal difference, the South Coast side would need a seven-goal swing in their favour to guarantee fifth place.
A six-goal swing may also be sufficient, although it would need Bournemouth to score at least six times at the City Ground to ensure they have a chance of finishing with more goals scored than the Reds.
And there is a particular series of results that could lead to a major headache for the Premier League.
Should Liverpool lose by one goal and Bournemouth win by five while scoring exactly five more goals than Slot’s side – for example, Liverpool lose 1-0 and Bournemouth win 5-0, or the Reds lose 2-1 and the Cherries win 6-1 – then the teams will be level on points, goal difference and goals scored.
In that case, Premier League positions are determined by the head-to-head results between the teams. With Liverpool winning 4-2 at Anfield and Bournemouth triumphant 3-2 at the Vitality Stadium, they are level on that metric.
But rather than goal difference in those games, which would favour Liverpool, the final determining point is the number of goals scored away in those matches. And with both teams having netted twice on the road, it would make it impossible to split them.
And that would lead to a play-off, which Premier League rules state would be a one-off game at a neutral ground, with the format and timing to be subsequently determined by the Premier League board.
Got your head around that? Nope? Well, let’s just hope it doesn’t happen. After all, there’s little appetite for this Liverpool season to go on any longer than the weekend.
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