Indian markets snapped their two-week winning streak and ended the week on a weaker note.
Rising geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment and the benchmark NIFTY50 index slipped 1.8% to 23,897 and SENSEX dropped 2.3% to 76,664. The fall in indices was driven by a spike in crude oil prices, weakness in the Rupee and continuous selling by Foreign investors in the equity market.
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However, the pressure was not uniform across the market. While frontline indices saw profit booking, broader markets continued to outperform, indicating underlying risk appetite. The NIFTY Midcap 150 index and Smallcap 250 indices slipped 0.7% and 0.1% respectively.
Sectorally, IT stocks surrendered gains from the last five weeks and slipped over 10%. Automobiles and Consumer Durables stocks also came under selling pressure as the indices dropped 2.9% and 2.4% respectively. On the other hand, Energy and FMCG stocks did the heavy lifting for the week and jumped 2.5% and 2.3% respectively.
📌Spotlight: In recent sessions, FMCG stocks have seen strong performance, led by positive earnings from Nestlé India, which has boosted confidence across the sector. Stocks such as Hindustan Unilever, Godrej Consumer Products, Tata Consumer Products and Marico moved in the range of 3% to 5%, signalling renewed interest in defensive stocks amid market volatility.
However, even though the sector is benefiting from earnings-led momentum, cost pressures are beginning to re-emerge, putting companies in a difficult position as they try to balance price hikes with demand recovery in a price-sensitive market.
🗓️Key events in focus: On Wednesday, global markets will be closely tracking the policy decision from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Although interest rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, commentary from Jerome Powell will be crucial. Experts believe that markets will be monitoring the committee’s interpretation of rising inflationary pressures caused by higher energy prices.
Attention will then turn to the PCE price index, due to be released on Thursday (1 May). This is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated, broadly in line with recent trends. This signals that price pressures continue to exceed the comfort zone.
On the domestic front, markets will track political developments as assembly elections progress across key states. The second phase of polling in West Bengal is scheduled for April 29, while exit poll trends are likely to start shaping sentiment as the voting cycle progresses. Other states including Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry have already completed polling. Vote counting for all five states is scheduled on May 4.
📈📉Earnings blitz: It’s a packed earnings week, with nearly one-third of S&P 500 companies set to report results. The spotlight will be on big tech, with five of the “Magnificent Seven” in focus. On 29 April, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Microsoft will announce results. On 30 April, heavyweights like Apple and Mastercard will report earnings, followed by energy majors Chevron and Exxon Mobil on 1 May.
Meanwhile, the following companies in India will announce their fourth quarter earnings of FY25-26: AU Bank, Coal India, Ultratech Cement, Varun Beverages, Eternal, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Finance, Federal Bank, Vedanta, Adani Ports, Hindustan Unilever, Bajaj Finserv and National Aluminium.
🛢️Crude oil: Crude oil prices moved higher during the week as escalating tensions in the Middle East raised concerns over potential supply disruptions. The focus remains on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, where any disruption could significantly impact supply flows and push prices higher. For the week, West Texas Intermediate jumped 12.7% to $97.5 per barrel, while Brent rose 8.1% to $99.9 per barrel.
📍Mark your calendars: The National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) will remain closed on Friday (May 1) on account of Maharashtra Day.
Market breadth
Market breadth has seen a sharp recovery in recent sessions. The percentage of NIFTY50 stocks trading above their 50 DMA bounced back from deeply oversold levels near 10–15% to around the 50–55% zone. This indicates that the recent pullback attracted buying interest and helped improve participation across the index. However, the current reading still sits in a neutral zone, suggesting that the recovery lacks strong conviction.
Foreign investors positioning
Foreign investors remained on the selling side through April, with total outflows of ₹56,363 crore. The selling intensity picked up sharply in recent sessions, coinciding with the decline in NIFTY. On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued to absorb the selling pressure, providing stability to the markets. They have bought shares worth ₹39,478 crore in April so far.
NIFTY50 outlook
NIFTY50 continues to trade in a volatile range, with price action failing to sustain above key resistance levels. The index recently attempted to move higher but faced rejection near the 24,600 zone due to a lack of strong follow-through buying.
On the downside, the 23,700–23,550 zone remains a crucial support band. This zone aligns with key moving averages and prior demand areas, making it important for bulls to defend. A decisive close below this range could open the door for a deeper correction, with selling pressure likely to intensify.
On the upside, 24,300 remains the immediate resistance, and only a decisive close above this level would signal strength.
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