Tennis Best Bets: Our favorite picks for Friday, June 19

The ATP and WTA Tours are shifting surfaces and picking up speed. We’re just a few weeks away from the start of Wimbledon, and the grass-court swing is officially underway — with four tournaments running simultaneously this week to give players time to find their form on the green stuff. On the men’s side, the field splits between the 500s in Queen’s Club (London) and Halle (Germany). Meanwhile, the women are competing in either the 500 in Berlin or the 250 in Nottingham. With that in mind, we have plenty of ground to cover over the next several days. I’ll be writing up my tennis best bets from Monday to Friday, then I’ll post my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page for the weekend finals. That said, keep reading for my tennis best bets for Friday, June 19.

RELATED: Check out the VSiN picks page for picks and best bets from all of our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!

NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.

Madison Keys vs. Jessica Pegula – Berlin

Unless Keys is facing someone like Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, or Iga Swiatek, taking her as an underdog will be tempting on grass. The American is 54-19 on this surface, giving her a 74.0% winning percentage that easily clears her numbers on clay or hard courts. Honestly, Keys is so good on grass that it’s stunning to me that her first Grand Slam title didn’t come at Wimbledon. Well, Keys is going off at plus-money odds in her match against Pegula on Friday, and I’m jumping all over it.

Pegula is good on grass herself, but she’s just 23-14 on the surface. Her 62.2% winning percentage on this surface is worse than it is on clay and hard courts.

Of course, Pegula’s all-around game, with powerful, flat groundstrokes, is a good fit for the grass. But when looking at this specific matchup, it’s the Keys serve that is the biggest weapon on the surface. She also has easier power than Pegula.

Pegula did beat Keys in their most recent meeting, winning 6-3, 6-4 at the Australian Open. However, it’s Keys that comes into this one as the better grass-court performer. She’s also in better form. Her straight-set win over Karolina Muchova last round shows you that she’s not messing around at the moment.

Bet: Keys ML (+114 – 1.5 units)

Taylor Fritz vs. Ben Shelton – Halle

If you’ve been reading my work for a long time, you probably know I like to find revenge spots. It’s very difficult to beat the same player twice in a row, plus casual bettors tend to back the guy that won last time and it’s never that easy. Well, give me Fritz to beat Shelton, who he lost to in the Stuttgart finals.

Both of these players have booming serves, but I trust Fritz’s baseline game a little more on this surface. There’s a reason Fritz’s peak Elo rating (2070.2) is higher than Shelton’s (2024.4), and it’s the more reliable overall game.

Fritz’s 52-week TennisViz Performance Rating of 8.28 is also way higher than Shelton’s 7.88, so we’re backing the better player at a reasonable number.

Bet: Fritz ML (-116 – 1.5 units)

Arthur Fery vs. Francisco Cerundolo – Queen’s Club

Cerundolo’s play over the last couple of days has really hurt me, as I have been fading him. But I continue to be underwhelmed by his grass-court numbers. He’s just 9-11 when playing on this surface in his career, and he was terrible on grass last year. Well, wins over Aleksandar Kovacevic and Jenson Brooksby weren’t enough to completely change my mind on his grass-court prowess.

Fery is going to have to play very well to beat Cerundolo, as the Argentinean does have more natural ability than he does. But Fery’s ability to take the ball early, cover the baseline, and come in to finish points should give him a chance in this one.

Fery is also more comfortable on this surface, and the fact he’s coming off a run to the semifinals in a Challenger in Birmingham means he has played way more grass-court tennis than Cerundolo lately. Also, Fery will be playing in front of a home crowd, which definitely helps when hunting an upset.

Bet: Fery +1.5 Sets (-164 – 1.5 units) & ML (+160 – 0.5 units)

Added Plays

I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.

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