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Preview: Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs. Elena Rybakina – prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far


Fresh off titanic comeback wins at the Madrid Open, Qinwen Zheng and Elena Rybakina will lock horns in the third round for a place in round four of the WTA 1000 tournament.

Neither player was entirely satisfied with her performance in Friday’s second-round victory, though both were relieved to have progressed and set up what is arguably the standout match of the next round in the women’s draw.


Match preview

Eleven months after her previous match on clay, Zheng was back on the dirt in Madrid on Friday as the Olympic gold medallist took on former Grand Slam champion Sofia Kenin.

The Chinese superstar was defeated by Aryna Sabalenka in Paris last year in straight sets and lost the opener to Kenin, winning only one game, which suggested an early exit was on the cards.

However, the former world No. 4, who has slipped down the rankings due to injury, refocused in set two and fought back from a break down in the decider to claim a 1-6, 6-3, 6-3 victory.

Friday’s win marked the 23-year-old’s first on the surface in 2026 and fifth overall, improving her to 5-3 this season, and she chases a sixth at the expense of Rybakina in the third round.

Despite her clay-court expertise, Zheng has never made it beyond the third round in Madrid, and the five-time WTA champion has now matched her 2023 performance in the Spanish capital.

Having claimed only her second-ever victory at this WTA 1000 event, the world No. 36 now bids to take down an in-form player whose winning streak faced a scare on Friday.

© Iconsport / ZUMA Press Wire

Rybakina clearly faced challenges acclimatising to conditions in the Spanish capital only days after claiming her second title of 2026 at the WTA 500 tournament in Stuttgart.

Elena Gabriela Ruse undeniably made the world No. 2’s return to outdoor clay courts awkward, and the match, lasting two hours and 28 minutes, at times looked to be getting away from the Kazakhstani star.

Not helped by a staggeringly high 58 unforced errors and the inconsistency of her first serve, the second seed needed to dig deep to overcome her Romanian opponent and avoid her earliest exit at any WTA 1000 event in 2026.

Despite the above-mentioned errors, it was noticeable that the world No. 2’s mistakes reduced in sets two and three — 18 and 12, respectively — after 24 in the opening set, while her first-set first-serve percentage of 41% improved to 58% and 55%.

Now on a five-match winning streak following her 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 victory, Rybakina, whose only defeats on the tour since the start of March have been against Aryna Sabalenka, will aim to reach the fourth round in Madrid, where she is a former semi-finalist, to improve her 26-5 record for the season.


Tournament so far

Qinwen Zheng:

First round: Bye

Second round: vs. Sofia Kenin 1-6 6-3 6-3

Elena Rybakina:

First round: Bye

Second round: vs. Elena-Gabriela Ruse 4-6 6-3 7-5


Head To Head

Doha (2026) – Round of 16: Rybakina 4-6 6-2 7-5)

WTA Finals (2024) – Round Robin: Zheng 7-6(4) 3-6 6-1)

China Open (2023) – Round of 64: Rybakina 6-1 6-2)

Wimbledon (2022) – Third round: Rybakina 7-6(4) 7-5)

Although Rybakina leads Zheng 3-1 in their head-to-head, Sunday’s match will mark their first on clay.

Rybakina got the better of the Chinese star in their first meeting at Wimbledon in 2022 en route to her maiden Grand Slam victory and took care of business in their next encounter the following year in Beijing, dropping just three games to win 6-1, 6-2.

While Zheng then halved the deficit by getting the better of the 26-year-old in the 2024 WTA Finals, Rybakina extended her lead after a hard-fought comeback success in Doha two months ago.


 

 

We say: Rybakina to win in three sets

Apart from that Beijing encounter in 2023, every match-up between the two players has been a hard-fought contest, and Sunday should not be any different.

Rybakina, who has had far more competitive clay-court practice this year, should claim a fourth win over the Chinese player to extend her five-match winning streak.



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