Traders bet more than $59 million on whether Polymarket would launch its US platform before the end of the year. But a question meant to produce a simple yes-or-no answer has exposed a deeper problem: prediction markets built to resolve uncertainty may struggle with it themselves.
In November, the company quietly opened its regulated American venue to a small group of testers, a soft launch that prompted disagreement among traders over whether the move met the criteria for going “live,” the subject of a so-called event on the platform. This week, the outcome was put to a blockchain vote among holders of UMA, the token that governs Polymarket’s arbitration system. The vote favored a “yes,” but that prompted backlash from users who said interpretation had been prioritized over fact. Payouts have still not been made.
