Natural Gas Price Forecast: Moving Averages Tighten Near Decision Zone

Trendline Convergence Creates Breakout Window

It is interesting to mention that the downtrend line and dashed uptrend line converge around May 13 and therefore create a window for a breakout through one of those lines. The direction will likely lead to a continuation in that direction. Upside levels are discussed above. Given the confluence of indicators at recent support of $2.72 from last Tuesday, a resolution to the upside could occur even within the larger developing bearish structure. Another rally toward resistance near the 100-day moving average may be what is needed before a sharp continuation of the decline that followed the 2025 peak.

Breakdown Levels and Fibonacci Extension Risk

A bearish continuation signal would trigger on a drop below last week’s low of $2.72, with the first target likely to fail at $2.58 and potentially leading to a deeper retracement. There is a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $2.31 and an area of potential support. A larger and potentially more significant lower price zone sits around $2.15 to $1.99. Overall, price action remains caught between near-term moving average compression and a broader bearish trend structure.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade natural gas, please visit our educational area.