Our leading predictive model gives Keys a 60% chance of defeating Stearns at the WTA Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Keys has a 58% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Keys (-2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 21.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Madison Keys vs. Peyton Stearns odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Keys | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -156 | +136 |
| First Set | -164 | +130 |
| Game Spread | -2.5 (-120) | +2.5 (-110) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-110) | u21.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Keys vs. Stearns picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Stearns | +136 |
| First Set | Stearns | -110 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Peyton Stearns to win the first set.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Keys vs. Stearns updates and essential details
The WTA Italian Open match between Madison Keys and Peyton Stearns is scheduled to commence on Friday at 7:30 AM ET.
- Who: Madison Keys vs. Peyton Stearns
- Date: Friday, May 8, 2026
- Approx. Time: 7:30 AM ET/4:30AM PT
- Tournament: WTA Rome, Italy Women’s Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Madison Keys, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat Peyton Stearns at the WTA Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
