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Indian stock market: How are Sensex and Nifty 50 likely to perform next week amid US-Iran war uncertainty?


Indian stock market: A widespread selloff hit the Indian stock market on Thursday, April 30, pulling benchmark indices — Sensex and Nifty 50 — into the red.

The 30-share Sensex dropped 583 points, or 0.75%, to close at 76,913.50, while the NSE’s Nifty 50 slipped 180 points, or 0.74%, to end at 23,997.55. Broader markets also weakened, with the BSE 150 Midcap and BSE 250 Smallcap indices declining 1% and 0.50%, respectively.

Out of the Nifty 50 constituents, 34 stocks finished lower, with Eternal, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Hindalco Industries, Hindustan Unilever, and Tata Steel emerging as the top losers.

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Stock market outlook for next week

According to Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, Indian markets are poised to begin the week on a strong note, with Gift Nifty indicating a gap-up opening of over 200 points from Thursday’s close. With Friday being a holiday, this positive momentum, which was supported by strength in US markets, remains largely unpriced, setting the stage for an optimistic start.

“The most immediate catalyst will be the outcome of key state elections, with investors closely watching whether the ruling party at the Centre can wrest West Bengal from the Trinamool Congress and make meaningful inroads into opposition-ruled Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where the Bharatiya Janata Party currently has a limited presence. Crude oil remains the single most critical macro variable. With Brent prices sustaining elevated levels amid ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, inflation risks remain pronounced. For an import-dependent economy like India, persistently high crude prices exert pressure on the rupee—currently near record lows—and weigh on corporate margins as well as fiscal dynamics. Any escalation in geopolitical tensions could quickly alter market direction and risk appetite,” Hariprasad said.

Market trading strategy for next week

Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking recommends investors maintain a cautious and selective approach, with global uncertainties persisting and domestic cues remaining mixed.

Mishra further noted that sectorally key segments such as banking and IT may continue to face relative underperformance, select sectors and themes are likely to offer support and generate opportunities. Pharma and healthcare appear promising after an extended corrective phase. Additionally, metals and energy remain on the radar, along with themes such as capital markets and select CPSE stocks.

“Traders should remain agile, avoid aggressive leverage, and adhere to disciplined risk management practices. With volatility expected to stay elevated, adopting a hedged approach and prioritising capital preservation over aggressive positioning will be essential until clearer directional signals emerge,” Mishra added.

Key technical levels to watch out for next week –

Sensex

According to Ponmudi R, CEO, Enrich Money, Sensex is currently trading within the 76,900–77,200 range, reflecting a range-bound movement with a cautious undertone amid ongoing market volatility.

On the technical outlook, Ponmudi added, “On the upside, 77,500–78,000 continues to act as an immediate resistance band, and a sustained move above this zone would be required to improve sentiment and extend the upmove toward 79,000–80,000 levels. On the downside, 76,300–76,000 serves as immediate support, followed by a stronger base in the 75,600–75,300 range, which is expected to provide a cushion if selling pressure intensifies. Overall, the index remains in a cautious phase, with clearer directional momentum likely to emerge only upon a decisive breakout beyond key support or resistance levels.”

Nifty 50

On the Nifty 50 outlook, Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, said that the price action suggests consolidation with a mildly bullish bias.

“On the upside, resistance levels are placed at 24,350 and 24,600. On the downside, support is seen at 23,900 and 23,550. A breakdown below 23,500 could result in increased selling pressure. Given the current market structure, traders are advised to remain disciplined and adhere to strict stop-loss strategies amid ongoing volatility,” Shah said.

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Bank Nifty

Meanwhile, on the Bank Nifty outlook, Shah further explained that in the near term, immediate downside support is placed in the 54,350–53,850 zone in case selling pressure re- emerges.

“On the upside, 55,550 acts as immediate resistance, while 56,200 stands as the next key supply zone. From a momentum standpoint, the weekly RSI at 45.54 indicates weakening momentum and a bearish undertone. However, failure to reclaim higher levels may keep the index under short-term corrective pressure. Traders are advised to remain cautious and follow disciplined risk management while closely tracking key levels for the next directional move,” he added.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.



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