The U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East have caused the biggest oil disruption in history. The closure of a major transit route between Asia and Europe, as well as restrictions on fossil fuel production in the region, have driven oil and gas prices up, a trend that is set to continue. So, as governments are facing rising consumer energy bills once again, will it be enough to encourage a Covid-era pivot to renewable energy?
The U.S. war against Iran has caused the largest oil disruption in history, according to an analysis by consulting firm Rapidan Energy, at double the previous record set during the Middle East conflict in the 1950s. By Monday, an estimated 20 percent of the world’s oil supply had been disrupted for nine days, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a key trade corridor connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
The closure of the corridor has driven oil prices above $100 a barrel, due to the squeeze on the global supply of crude. The previous biggest disruption was seen during the Suez Crisis of 1956 when Britain, France, and Israel invaded Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, which disrupted around 10 percent of the world’s supply, according to Rapidan.
The rising oil and gas prices have led consumers worldwide to worry about the rising prices of fuel, as governments scramble to find alternative supplies or manage those that they have. The concerns around rising oil and gas prices stem from the ongoing reliance on fossil fuels by many countries around the world. While some regions of the world have invested in expanding their renewable energy capacity, many have failed to deploy renewable energy at the speed needed to make a meaningful shift away from fossil fuels.
During the Covid-19 pandemic, when oil prices hit record lows, and fossil fuel companies had to battle to stay afloat, many oil majors decided to diversify their portfolios by investing heavily in renewable energy and cleantech, responding to what they perceived as a growing public demand for this shift. Oil and gas companies around the globe pledged to increase the development of green energy projects, resulting in the global share of renewables in total energy generation rising from 26.1 percent in 2019 to 29.5 percent in 2022.
However, in a post-pandemic era, in which oil and gas demand has risen dramatically – as have oil prices – several companies have backtracked on their green energy pledges. Similarly, several countries have failed to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy capacity in line with national climate goals. This has led many countries to continue depending heavily on fossil fuels, meaning that they are more vulnerable to price volatility.
This is not the only time in recent history that the world’s energy supply has been hard hit by geopolitical challenges. A report published in March by the Transition Security Project suggests that the fossil fuel energy crisis, caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, cost the EU and the U.K. $1.8 trillion between 2022 and 2025. The conflict also drove up bills and fuel costs, leading to a major cost-of-living crisis. At the time, many European governments focused on rapidly finding alternative gas supplies to avoid buying sanctioned energy from Russia, rather than accelerating their renewable energy deployment.
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The report’s author, Kevin Cashman, said that the 2022 energy crisis, “presented a fork in the road for Europe – double down on volatile fossil fuel markets, or pivot to homegrown clean energy and greater security.” Cashman added, “The failure to do the latter has left people on ordinary incomes paying the price for an irresponsible and shortsighted energy policy.”
The UN’s climate chief, Simon Stiell, echoed this opinion when he said that the recent Middle East conflict “shows yet again that fossil fuel dependence leaves economies, businesses, markets and people at the mercy of each new conflict or trade policy lurch”. Stiell added, “There is a clear solution to this fossil fuel cost chaos – renewables are now cheaper, safer and faster-to-market, making them the obvious pathway to energy security and sovereignty.”
Meanwhile, in the case of the United Kingdom, Bob Ward, from the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics, emphasised the need to expand the renewable energy and fossil fuel industries. Ward explained, “The U.K. is vulnerable to the volatility of international fossil fuel markets, and the only way to protect ourselves from these price increases is by speeding up the transition to domestic supplies of clean energy, namely renewables and nuclear power.”
Time and time again, countries have turned to rely on fossil fuels, rather than investing in diversification, which has had a lasting effect on their energy security. The question now is, will the Iran war and ongoing Middle East conflict be the tipping point for fossil fuels, as governments worldwide finally see the importance of diversification, if not only for tackling climate change, then for ensuring the future of their energy supply?
By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
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