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Hindalco shares rise 4% on strong Novelis Q4; Oswego restart lifts outlook | Markets News
Hindalco share price today
Shares of Hindalco Industries Ltd rose nearly 4 per cent on the BSE on Wednesday as investors cheered better-than-expected March quarter results by Novelis, a wholly-owned US-based subsidiary of the company.
Additionally, management commentary on sooner-than-expected resumption of Oswego hot mill raised hopes of earnings recovery.
“The Oswego mill restart will likely commence well ahead of the earlier June 2026 guidance, with operations expected to resume over the next few weeks and ramp up swiftly to pre-fire levels. Given this, we expect Novelis’ earnings recovery to strengthen from Q2FY27 onward as Oswego volumes normalise, supported further by improving scrap spreads and global cost-efficiency programmes,” noted analysts at Emkay Global Financial Services.
Hindalco shares hit 52-week high level of ₹1,105 on May 14, 2026, and are up 25 per cent from their March low of ₹839.3 per share.
So far in calendar year 2026, shares of the aluminium company have rallied 18.26 per cent, compared to over 10-per cent decline in the BSE Sensex index.
Novelis Q4FY26 results
$2,488/tonne).
The company’s adjusted Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) came at $459 million, down 3 per cent Y-o-Y. Its Ebitda per tonne increased 10 per cent on year to $544/tonne on favourable scrap and cost efficiencies.
The management said it absorbed an Ebitda loss of $53 million due to Oswego fire incident, along with $27-million tariff headwind, partially offset by $41-million Sierre insurance recoveries during the quarter.
Novelis revised the total pre-insurance adverse free cash flow (FCF) impact from Oswega fire to $1.7 billion, compared to earlier estimate of $1.3-1.6 billion. The management said it expects to recover 70-75 per cent damages through insurance.
Geographically, North America business declined 51 per cent Y-o-Y on Oswego disruption, while Europe surged 44 per cent Y-o-Y on rerouted volumes. South America grew 27 per cent Y-o-Y on scrap tailwinds, while Asia declined 20 per cent Y-o-Y on unfavourable mix despite volume growth.
Hindalco shares outlook: Brokerages say ‘Buy’
JM Financial | Buy | Target: ₹1,210
That apart, Novelis witnessed a net negative tariff impact to the tune of $27 million in Q4FY26 as compared to $34 million in Q3FY26. It expects this to go down going ahead driven by the ongoing mitigation efforts.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Buy
Novelis reiterated its Ebitda target of over $600/tonne over the next 2-3 years through cost reductions, Bay Minette ramp-up, and operational normalisation.
Separately, FY26-exit saving run rate stood at $200m from global cost efficiency programme and it expects $350-400 million in total savings by FY28 end.
“FY27 capex is expected to be in the range of $2.1-2.4 billion, of which $1.7 billion is for Bay Minette and $350 million for maintenance. From Q4FY27, Novelis expects capex to decline significantly and return to a free cash flow position by the end of FY27,” MOFSL highlighted.
Emkay Global Financial Services | Buy | Target: ₹1,100
Novelis reported net debt of $6.7 billion in March 2026, with net debt-to-Ebitda ratio rising to 4.1x from 3.7x in December 2025.
“With insurance recoveries likely to be staggered over the next two years and $1.8 billion of Bay Minette capex still pending, leverage could temporarily rise toward ~4.5x in the near term. However, with Bay Minette commissioning on track for H2CY26 and Oswego operations normalising, we expect leverage to moderate toward ~4.0x by end-FY27 and decline further thereafter,” the brokerage said.
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