Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone through the first half of the European session on Wednesday and currently trades just below the $4,700 mark, though it lacks bearish conviction. Hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation figures released on Tuesday reaffirmed market expectations for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed). Moreover, geopolitical uncertainties lift the US Dollar (USD) to an over one-week high, keeping the precious metal depressed for the second consecutive day.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday that the headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 3.3% in the prior month to 3.8% over the 12 months through April, or a nearly three-year high. Adding to this, the core gauge, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% in April and the yearly rate moved up to a seven-month high of 2.8%, further away from the Fed’s 2% target. Traders were quick to react and are now pricing in a roughly 35% chance that the US central bank will hike borrowing costs by the year-end.
This comes on top of concerns that consumer prices are likely to keep rising amid elevated Crude Oil prices, bolstered by the US-Iran stalemate, and pushed US Treasury bond yields higher. In fact, the 30-year US government bond yield briefly touched the 5.0% mark, putting it within reach of the yearly peak, while the rate-sensitive two-year US government bond yield remains close to the 4% threshold. This, in turn, should act as a tailwind for the USD and turns out to be another factor undermining demand for the non-yielding Gold.
Meanwhile, prospects for a US-Iran peace deal diminished further after US President Donald Trump said that the ceasefire was “unbelievably weak” and on “massive life support.” Furthermore, Iran rejected a US proposal to end a more than two-month-old conflict amid disagreements over Tehran’s nuclear program and a standoff over the critical Strait of Hormuz. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and might continue to benefit the USD’s reserve currency status, validating the near-term negative outlook for the Gold price.
The lack of follow-through selling, however, warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of the retracement slide from a three-week high, touched on Tuesday. Traders now seem hesitant and might opt to move to the sidelines ahead of a two-day meeting between Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. Traders on Wednesday will further take cues from the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the incoming geopolitical headlines, which will drive the USD and provide a short-term impetus to the Gold price.
XAU/USD 1-hour chart
Gold seems vulnerable amid formation of a bearish double-top near $4,765-$4,770
From a technical perspective, the previous day’s pullback from the $4,765-$4,770 region constituted the formation of a bearish double-top pattern on the 1-hour chart. The subsequent fall, however, showed resilience near the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting that dip-buying interest persists despite the recent consolidation. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 line. This hints at subdued but stabilizing momentum rather than a decisive trend.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying and a sustained strength above the $4,770 resistance zone before traders start positioning for any further appreciating move. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 200-period SMA near $4,655.51, where a break would expose deeper corrective pressure toward prior swing lows.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Producer Price Index (YoY)
The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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