Gold price (XAU/USD) rises to an all-time high near $4,300 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The precious metal gains momentum on the expectation of US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts after signs of softer US inflation and cooler jobs reports. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal.
Additionally, persistent safe-haven demand amid the Israel-Iran conflict and the rise in US-Venezuela tensions might contribute to the yellow metal’s upside. It’s worth noting that traders seek assets that can preserve value during periods of uncertainty, which supports the Gold price.
Financial markets are likely to trade in a subdued mood, and traders might book profits ahead of the long holiday period. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the precious metal. The US Chicago Fed National Activity Index report for September will be published later on Monday. On Tuesday, the preliminary reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (Q3) will be in the spotlight.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold rises amid Fed rate cut expectations, safe-haven flows
- The US is still in pursuit of a third oil tanker near Venezuela, officials told Reuters on Sunday, as US President Donald Trump intensifies an oil blockade on Nicolás Maduro’s government.
- Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said over the weekend that officials are preparing to brief US President Donald Trump about options for attacking Iran again, according to Reuters.
- The final reading from the University of Michigan on Friday showed that the Consumer Sentiment Index was downwardly revised to 52.9 in December from a preliminary reading of 53.3. Economists had expected the index to be upwardly revised to 53.4.
- Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Sunday that monetary policy is in a good place to pause, and she will assess the effects of 75 basis points (bps) of rate cuts on the economy during the first quarter, per Bloomberg.
- Financial markets are pricing in only a 21.0% chance the Fed will cut interest rates at its next meeting in January, after it reduced them by a quarter-point at each of its last three meetings, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Gold stays bullish and prepares to challenge its record high
Gold trades in positive territory on the day. According to the four-hour chart, the yellow metal maintains the bullish outlook as the price is well-supported above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average. Furthermore, the Bollinger Bands widen and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located above the midline, keeping the bulls in check.
The immediate resistance level for XAU/USD emerges at an all-time high of $4,381. A clean break above this level could set Gold up toward the $4,400 psychological mark.
On the flip side, sustained trading below the December 20 low of $4,337 could invite fresh selling pressure and drag the price down to the lower limit of the Bollinger Band of $4,307, followed by the 100-day EMA of $4,253.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
