On Friday, the 50-stock index fell 275 points, or 1.14%, to close at 23,898.
Rupak De of LKP Securities said markets have seen heightened volatility over the past three sessions, with the index coming under pressure amid escalating US-Iran tensions. From a technical standpoint, he noted that the index failed to sustain gains after encountering resistance around its 100-day EMA on the daily chart, triggering renewed selling that dragged it below the 24,000 level.
The overall trend now appears weak, with the Nifty potentially drifting towards 23,500. However, he added that 24,200 remains a key hurdle, and a breakout above this level could help stabilise sentiment.
1) Fed FOMC
Global markets will closely track the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, which begins on Tuesday, April 28. The outcome will be announced on Wednesday, April 29, with the central bank widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%.
2) Q4 earnings
More than 200 companies listed on the BSE are set to announce their Q4FY26 earnings this week. Key Nifty constituents in focus include Coal India, UltraTech Cement, Eternal, Maruti Suzuki India, Bajaj Finance, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ), Bajaj Finserv, Hindustan Unilever (HUL), and Kotak Mahindra Bank.
Among widely tracked non-Nifty names, results are due from AU Small Finance Bank, Bajaj Housing Finance, Bandhan Bank, REC, GRSE, Adani Power, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Vedanta, Waaree Energies, ACC, Central Bank of India, and Avenue Supermarts (DMart).
3) Iran-Israel conflict
Ceasefire negotiations between Iran and the US have hit a stalemate. Talks scheduled over the weekend failed to materialise, with Iran indicating that its officials do not plan to engage with the US on ending the conflict that has already claimed thousands of lives and roiled global markets.
The war, which began on February 27 following joint US-Israel strikes on Iran targeting its top leadership, has seen fluctuating intensity. While hostilities have eased somewhat, both sides remain far from a resolution. The initial round of talks in Islamabad also failed to yield progress. The trajectory of these negotiations is likely to be a key driver for global market sentiment.
4) US markets
Amid lingering geopolitical concerns, Indian equities will also take cues from Wall Street.
US benchmark indices ended mixed on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed decision. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.88 points, or 0.16%, to close at 49,230.71. The S&P 500 rose 0.80% (56.68 points) to 7,165.08, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 398.09 points, or 1.63%, to 24,836.60.
5) Crude oil
Movement in global crude oil prices will remain a key factor for domestic markets.
US WTI crude futures settled at $94.88 per barrel on Friday, down $0.97 or 1.01%, while Brent crude rose 0.77%, or $0.81, to close at $105.33 per barrel.
6) FII/DII action
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained heavy sellers during the week, offloading domestic equities worth Rs 17,140 crore over the five sessions ended Friday. Total outflows in April have now risen to Rs 43,967 crore, taking the cumulative outflow for 2026 so far to Rs 1,75,089 crore.
On Friday, FIIs sold shares worth Rs 8,827.87 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 4,700.71 crore.
Read more: FII exodus deepens in 2026 at Rs 1.75 lakh crore as April outflows swell to Rs 43,967 crore; FOMC next trigger
7) Technical triggers
Decoding the charts, Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President – Research at Religare Broking, said the index has slipped below its crucial support at 23,900 (20-DEMA), signalling a shift in near-term bias to the downside. Immediate support is seen around 23,500.
On the upside, the 24,200-24,500 zone is likely to act as a strong resistance band. Any rebound towards these levels may face selling pressure unless supported by easing crude prices and improved global cues, Mishra added.
8) Rupee vs dollar
The rupee’s movement against the US dollar will be closely tracked.
The Indian rupee declined in all five trading sessions last week, logging its steepest weekly fall since September 2022. The drop was driven by concerns over the fragility of a US-Iran ceasefire and potential disruptions to energy supplies, which triggered a fresh surge in oil prices.
The rupee settled at 94.2475 on Friday, down 1.4% for the week.
Regulatory measures by the Reserve Bank of India and optimism around a potential easing of Middle East tensions had briefly supported the currency. However, the relief proved short-lived as oil prices resumed their upward trend amid fluctuating hopes of peace talks.
9) Stocks on Watchlist
Metal major Vedanta is likely to remain in focus, with its demerger ex-date and record date falling on April 30 and May 1, respectively.
Meanwhile, Hindustan Zinc (HZL), a Vedanta subsidiary, has fixed April 30 as the record date to determine shareholder eligibility for its Rs 11 per share dividend.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
