Eight men will vie for a spot in the second week of the ATP Rome Masters on what promises to be an entertaining fifth day in the Italian capital. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the slate, including Alexander Zverev vs Alexander Blockx. But who will secure their spot in the last 16 in the Eternal City?
ATP Rome Day 5 Predictions
Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka
Head-to-head: Ruud 2-0 Lehecka
After failing to defend his title in Madrid, Casper Ruud returned to winning ways at the ATP Rome Maters with a solid 6-1 6-3 win over Zachary Svajda in his opener at the Foro Italico. The Norwegian averaged over 80% of points won on serve and did not face a break point in what was surely a confidence building win for the former-world #2. But Jiri Lehecka will pose Ruud with more problems with his superior control of depth and more expansive shotmaking. That said, Ruud’s heavy forehand and movement remain elite weapons on this surface. The 23rd seed should come through, even if it does prove to be a battle.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar
Head-to-head: first meeting
Mattero Arnaldi has defied the odds to reach the third round in his home tournament for the first time. He earned a sensational comeback victory against Alex de Minaur in the last round. Jodar, meanwhile, picked up his 13th win from his last 15 clay-court matches, beating Nuno Borges 7-6 6-4. Arnaldi is familiar with the Rome conditions. He’s featured in every main draw since 2022. But although he has greater Tour-level experience than Rafael Jodar, the Spaniard enters this match as one of the tour’s most in-form players with 13 wins on clay and should have enough to win again.
Prediction: Jodar in 3
Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik
Head-to-head: first meeting
Learner Tien is very much a developing player on clay with an 8-13 lifetime record on the surface, but he’s coming into this match at the ATP Rome Masters on the back of a massive win over clay-court specialist Damir Dzumhur. Tien handled the Bosnian’s physicality and outmatched his opponent’s consistency in the baseline exchanges. It was fine perfomance from the American. Alexander Bublik will be an entirely different challenge. The Kazakh has that ability to overwhelm opponents on any surface with his mercural shotmaking, but his game is unpredictable and he prefers quicker conditions. Tien’s recent win is an indicator that he is improving on clay and could pose some problems in this match with his controlled tennis.
Prediction: Tien in 3
Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo
Head-to-head: Musetti 2-2 Cerundolo
Last year, Lorenzo Musetti delivered his best result so far at the ATP Rome Masters, losing to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals. With the Spaniard out of the picture this year, coupled with the early exit of former champion Novak Djokovic, Musetti once again looks well-placed to make a deep run on home turf. But facing 25th seed Francisco Cerundolo in the third round will not be straightforward for the Italian. The Argentine has impressed in this tournament before. He famously knocked out Jannik Sinner on his way to the quarterfinals in 2023 and his powerful forehand is always a weapon to be reckoned with. Both men produced strong showings to kick off the tournament, but it is Cerundolo who might nick this. His forehand can pin Musetti behind the baseline and limit the Italian’s variety.
Prediction: Cerundolo in 3
Main photo credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
