Adani Ports
Jefferies hiked the target price on Adani Ports to Rs 1,980 from Rs 1,825, valuing it at 17x Mar-28E EV/EBITDA in line with FY27 trading multiples. March-26Q EBITDA beat estimates by 9% due to a 9% YoY rise in domestic port realizations, while management guides for 9-14% YoY FY27E EBITDA growth versus Jefferies’ 11% forecast. Capacity additions like NQXT terminal and Colombo West Terminal, alongside potential coal import recovery via Power Ministry guidelines and Tata Power’s Mundra PPA, are key volume drivers for FY27E, targeting 18% EBITDA CAGR over FY26-31E.
Adani Power
The brokerage lifted Adani Power’s target to Rs 255 from Rs 185, applying a 20x FY28E EV/EBITDA multiple, a 100 bps premium to NTPC. This is based on expectations of 23% EBITDA CAGR through FY26-29E, driven by capacity doubling to 30.7GW by FY30E.
March quarter EBITDA exceeded estimates by 7% due to better utilization and realizations. Recent Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) signed at Rs 5.8-6.3/unit across 8.2GW versus sub-Rs 5.5/unit previously, are boosting profitability for FY28-30E. PLF held flat YoY at 74% amid 2% power demand growth, but merchant exposure dipped to 19% of volumes, supporting stable blended realizations.
Adani Enterprises
Jefferies upped the target on Adani Enterprises to Rs 2,800 from Rs 2,600 via SOTP, with Airports and ANIL contributing 75-80% of EV on 14% EBITDA/PAT CAGR over FY25-28E. Mar-Q EBITDA rose 3-4% YoY to Rs 44.8 billion, led by 75% YoY Airports growth (FY26 up 55%), ANIL’s 6% rise, and Copper’s strong exit, despite Trading and Mining Services dips.
Management eyes over Rs 30 bn incremental FY27 EBITDA from scaling Navi Mumbai Airport, Kutch Copper, and Roads post FY26 stabilization, with capex at Rs 400 billion.
