More people worldwide are being forced to invest in air conditioning as temperatures rise and heatwaves become more frequent and longer-lasting. People living in countries and regions where it was once inconceivable to need A/C because of high temperatures are increasingly installing new units. While the move may be necessary, the increased electricity use is expected to raise carbon emissions in countries that still rely heavily on fossil fuels.
In 2024, extreme heat events in India, China, and the United States – the three largest electricity markets – drove a surge in air conditioner use, prompting electricity demand to double in some heatwave months, according to a 2025 report from the think tank Ember. This led to a significant increase in coal generation to meet rising power demand.
Several heatwaves hit various densely populated areas of the world in 2024, which was the hottest year on record. Air conditioning use doubled the growth in electricity demand in China in August and September that year, compared with the previous year, and contributed 31 percent of China’s increase in electricity demand from April to September 2024. Meanwhile, it accounted for the entire year-on-year increase in demand in the United States.
As the demand for cooling increased, it put greater strain on the grid, with all three countries turning to coal to meet the growth in demand, although the United States also used gas to fill the gap. In China, 59 percent of the country’s annual coal generation growth occurred in August and September alone. The United States did slightly better, with clean energy meeting about two-thirds of the increase in demand, although it still relied on gas and coal for the remaining one-third. In India, coal provided around 70 percent of the power demand increase in May 2024.
People in countries where A/C is commonplace are increasingly using their A/C systems to cope with higher summer temperatures. Meanwhile, more consumers in countries in the Global South are investing in cooling systems in line with economic growth and rapid urbanisation. In addition, people in countries where long periods of high temperatures were previously uncommon, such as in Western Europe, are now experiencing more frequent heatwaves, prompting them to invest in A/C. This is driving up electricity demand in various parts of the world.
As several countries ramp up their renewable energy capacity, this is helping them shift away from reliance on fossil fuels, but the rapid rollout of data centres and the increased uptake of cooling systems for homes and businesses could slow the pace of the green transition. The use of A/C units could become “greener” in the future as more people invest in home solar and battery installations, but, for now, many people still rely on the mixed mains electricity supply, which is driving up carbon emissions.
In the United Kingdom, in July 2022, temperatures reached a record high of slightly over 40°C, a significant increase over the previous record of 38.7°C set in 2019. During the 2022 heatwave, around 3,000 people died of causes associated with heat. Studies suggest that using A/C can help reduce heat-related deaths by around 75 percent, which has prompted campaigners to call on the government to install cooling units in schools, care homes, and places where vulnerable people reside.
An estimated 4 million U.K. households now have A/C, marking a 100 percent increase in uptake from 2023. Most consumers are opting for portable rather than built-in units, as the biggest battle is with heatwaves rather than prolonged periods of extremely high temperatures. The increase in uptake has also been driven by the rise in the number of people working from home.
It feels somewhat ironic that the rise in global A/C uptake is driven by global warming, yet the increased use of cooling systems can further contribute to climate change, as governments continue to rely on fossil fuels to generate power. According to 2024 figures, air conditioning accounts for around 7 percent of global electricity and 3 percent of carbon emissions.
A study published in February estimates that, by 2050, air-conditioning use is expected to more than double. The first author of the study, Hongzhi Zhang, said in a press release, “The study reveals that if all low?income regions gained the same access to air-conditioning as rich regions, related global emissions would jump dramatically – adding up to 0.05°C extra warming even in the most climate?friendly scenario.”
Urging consumers to reduce their A/C use or use alternative cooling methods is not an option, given the rising temperatures. Therefore, the only way to prevent global warming driven by increased A/C use is to invest in green technologies. Several actions can be taken to make cooling units “greener”, such as governments accelerating the rollout of renewable energy capacity, installing home solar and battery systems, and investing in more efficient cooling systems.
By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
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