The numbers say Paul Thomas Anderson. History says it’s time for Ryan Coogler.
That tension that exists between what the statistical evidence suggests and what nearly a century of omission demands defines this year’s best director race. It’s a reality the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences cannot sidestep, not at this moment and not with this film.
For nearly 100 years, the Academy has handed out the Oscar for best director without ever awarding it to a Black filmmaker. Now comes “Sinners,” the most nominated film in Oscar history, with 16 nominations. If Coogler were to lose Sunday night, the question would inevitably follow: what does that say about an institution approaching its centennial?
Coogler’s nom makes the 39-year-old Oakland native the seventh Black filmmaker recognized in the category, following John Singleton, Lee Daniels, Steve McQueen, Barry Jenkins, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee.
Only seven nominations, and zero wins.
And yet Coogler isn’t in this race because of symbolism. He’s here because “Sinners” forced its way into the center of the conversation.
With 16 nominations, the film shattered the all-time Oscar nomination record, two more than the previous high held by “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land.”
Some have dismissed that milestone, pointing to the Academy’s newly added casting category. But that argument conveniently overlooks the facts: when “La La Land” tied the record in 2017 and “Titanic” in 1998, the Oscars still had two sound categories, meaning the playing field has always remained the same. Even after clearing that hurdle, the narrative in some corners remains that it’s simply “not Coogler’s time” — that the moment belongs to someone else.
There’s a saying often repeated in the Black community: you have to work twice as hard — sometimes 10 times harder — just to receive the same recognition. Didn’t Coogler do that and then some? He delivered a film that broke records, drew audiences in enormous numbers and redefined what an original, Black-centered story can achieve — and still, the messaging suggests he might not be worthy. If that isn’t a loud and clear signal, I don’t know what is.
And let’s be honest: writing this column will inevitably provoke backlash in a time of cultural turmoil. Some of it will be thoughtful disagreement. Some of it will not. Journalists of color pointing out inequities in Hollywood are often accused of bias simply for acknowledging patterns visible in the industry’s own history. You can see it in the responses to Variety’s final Oscar predictions, where even suggesting that Paul Thomas Anderson might not win best director was treated by some as an affront. People often reveal more than they realize in moments like that.
But none of this diminishes Anderson’s brilliance or the extraordinary film he has made. “Sinners” and Coogler’s achievements simply force a different conversation.
Upon its April release, “Sinners” also became the highest-grossing original movie domestically in 15 years, dating back to Christopher Nolan’s “Inception.” At a time when Hollywood often insists original filmmaking is a financial gamble, Coogler proved the opposite. He delivered a wholly original, Black-centered story that audiences embraced in massive numbers. A directing win would represent more than a “first” in Oscar history, as it would challenge long-held assumptions about what kinds of stories can succeed.
I keep revisiting a conversation with a Black AMPAS member who put it bluntly: “If we get to the Academy’s 100th year and no Black filmmaker has stood on that stage, what does that say? You’re telling me nobody was worthy during that time? Nobody? This is the opportunity to do it for a worthy artist who happens to be Black but is also unequivocally great.”
That distinction matters. This isn’t about sentiment or institutional guilt. Coogler earned this moment. This would not be a career Oscar. The real question is whether the Academy has the imagination to recognize the full scope of what he accomplished.
Admittedly, the statistics heavily favor Anderson.
The Directors Guild of America Award for theatrical feature remains one of the most reliable Oscar predictors. In its history, the DGA winner has gone on to win best director at the Oscars in all but eight cases.
This year, Anderson won.
He also took best director at the BAFTA Awards — his first victory there after nominations for “There Will Be Blood” and “Licorice Pizza.” Add wins at the Golden Globe Awards and the Critics Choice Awards, and Anderson has effectively swept the precursors that traditionally decide this race. Momentum like that rarely disappears.
Heading into final voting, Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” had already collected more than 30 critics and guild prizes, including his film nabbing the rare feat of sweeping the four major critics groups: the National Board of Review, Los Angeles Film Critics Association, New York Film Critics Circle and the National Society of Film Critics.
For Anderson — a filmmaker with 11 Oscar nominations and no wins — the season has looked like a long-awaited coronation. And it would be deserved. Few American filmmakers of the past three decades have produced a body of work as daring and influential.
But awards races don’t unfold in a vacuum. They unfold in moments. And this moment feels different.
Only about 2% of all Oscar nominees and winners between 1929 and 2025 were Black. In recent years, the Academy has worked to reshape its membership and expand its perspective. Those efforts weren’t meant to be symbolic. They meant to change outcomes, and this year will test that.
And even the two times a Black film has been embraced, “12 Years a Slave” (2013) and “Moonlight” (2016) — with the former having the only Black winner ever in the best picture category with Steve McQueen — we witness a best picture-director split, and are told “screenplay is the consolation prize.”
I don’t predict a Coogler win because I think it’s fun to get industry’s hopes alive. On the contrary, I’m acknowledging it’s a close competition based on the conversations I had with voters. And despite a high percentage chance that this prediction falters (yet again), the sheer acceptance of the Oscars likely going 100 years without a Black winner — and that not bothering the many so-called “cinephiles” and “allies” in the slightest — is concerning.
Coogler’s support across the industry is real (whether the nay-sayers want to believe it or not). “Sinners” won the ensemble prize at the Actor Awards (formerly SAG), making him the first director to helm two ensemble winners after previously achieving the feat with “Black Panther.” At BAFTA, he also became the first Black winner of the original screenplay prize. The admiration for this film — and for this filmmaker — is genuine, cross-industry and steadily growing.
The statistics point toward Anderson. The history of this award — the full, unvarnished 98-year history of it — points somewhere else.
I’m predicting Ryan Coogler not because the math demands it, but because this moment does. I take the responsibility of believing that Black people (and all underrepresented communities) can achieve greatness to heart, even when the deck is stacked against them. Even when the “statistics” point to a different outcome. Somebody has to believe they can win.
As the Oscars approaches its centennial, voters face a defining question. And Ryan Coogler feels like the answer.
