Despite U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday (March 11, 2026) announcing on social media (Truth Social) that Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) would be investing in a new refinery in the U.S., calling it a “historic” $300 billion deal, RIL remained mum throughout the day.
The company did not make any announcement neither informed anything to stock exchanges, fuelling speculations on the veracity of Mr. Trump’s claims.
On a day when the stock market was down nearly 2%, the RIL stock closed 1.27% lower at ₹1,391.10 on the BSE.
According to Mr. Trump’s social media post, the refinery would be constructed in Brownsville, Texas and this would be the first new refinery in the U.S. in the past 50 years.
Describing it as the cleanest refinery in the world, Mr. Trump said it would fuel U.S. markets and strengthen national security.
Following the announcement, J.P. Margan in a note said this refinery might be less about capex intensity and more about profitability.
“Reliance is reportedly planning to invest $300 billion in the U.S. to open a new refinery in Texas. We estimate initial capex to be a small portion of this target, and it is possible Reliance could involve partners to reduce the total capex outflow,” it said.
“We believe assuring profitability for such a project remains key, and potential government incentives could prove supportive,” it added.
According to J.P. Morgan’s estimates, a typical 30 million tonne refinery (a likely size for the first phase of the project) could hypothetically cost $60 billion.
“Capex could be higher if associated petrochemical facilities are planned for a project of this magnitude. Given the size, it is likely that Reliance would engage with local partners and, assuming a stake of 50% with a 30-70% equity-debt funding mix, we estimate RIL’s implied equity investment could be $10 billion,” J.P. Morgan said.