Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on a modest intraday uptick to a one-and-a-half-week top, though it sticks to a mildly positive tone heading into the European session on Tuesday. Traders ramped up their bets for another interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in December following the recent comments from influential FOMC members, which continues to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the intensifying Russia-Ukraine war and fresh conflicts in the Middle East turn out to be another factor benefiting the safe-haven commodity.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) sits near its highest level since late May, touched last week despite dovish Fed expectations, and acts as a headwind for the Gold price. Moreover, a generally positive tone around the equity markets contributes to capping the upside for the precious metal. Traders also seem reluctant and opt to wait for important US macro data – the delayed release of Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales – before positioning for the next leg of a directional move for the XAU/USD pair.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold bulls have the upper hand as Fed rate cut bets offset firmer USD and positive risk tone
- New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Friday that interest rates could fall in the near term without putting the central bank’s inflation goal at risk. Adding to this, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that the job market is weak enough to warrant another quarter-point rate cut in December.
- According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the futures-market-implied probability of a 25 basis points rate reduction to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% in December now stands at around 80%. This fails to assist the US Dollar to build on last week’s strong move up to a multi-month high and lends support to the non-yielding Gold.
- Russia launched a wave of attacks on Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, early Tuesday (November 25, 2025), striking residential buildings and energy infrastructure. The attack follows negotiations between the US and Ukraine representatives in Switzerland over the weekend about a US-brokered plan to end a nearly four-year-old war.
- The White House said US President Donald Trump remains hopeful and optimistic that a deal can be struck, though he cautioned that any progress remains uncertain. According to a Ukrainian official, the US-proposed Russia-Ukraine peace plan now has 19 points and does not include a strict limit on the size of the Ukrainian army.
- The changes, however, could very well be less acceptable to Russia. Furthermore, Israel, according to the Gaza Government Media Office, has violated the United States-brokered Gaza ceasefire at least 497 times in 44 days. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and turns out to be another factor supporting the safe-haven precious metal.
- Traders now look forward to Tuesday’s US economic docket – featuring the delayed release of the US Producer Price Index and Retail Sales figures, along with Pending Home Sales and Richmond Manufacturing Index. This could influence the USD price dynamics and produce short-term trading opportunities around the XAU/USD pair.
Gold seems poised to appreciate further and aim towards reclaiming the $4,200 mark
The overnight strong move up validated a confluence support – comprising an upward sloping trend-line extending from late October and the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The subsequent move up and positive oscillators on 4-hour/daily charts back the case for a further near-term appreciating move for the XAU/USD pair. Hence, some follow-through strength towards the $4,177-4,178 region, en route to the $4,200 round figure, looks like a distinct possibility. The momentum could extend further towards testing the monthly swing high, around the $4,245 zone.
On the flip side, any pullback below the $4,132-4,130 area might now be seen as a buying opportunity and find decent support near the $4,110-4,100 region. A convincing break below the latter would expose the aforementioned confluence, currently pegged near the $4,032-4,030 zone, which, if broken, might shift the near-term bias in favor of bears and drag the Gold price to the $4,000 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling should pave the way for a fall towards last week’s swing low, around the $3,968-3,967 area, en route to the $3,931 support, the $3,900 mark and late October swing low, around the $3,886 region.
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.58% | 0.39% | 0.97% | 0.50% | 0.56% | 1.01% | 1.58% | |
| EUR | -0.58% | -0.20% | 0.38% | -0.09% | -0.03% | 0.40% | 0.98% | |
| GBP | -0.39% | 0.20% | 0.62% | 0.11% | 0.18% | 0.61% | 1.19% | |
| JPY | -0.97% | -0.38% | -0.62% | -0.48% | -0.42% | 0.00% | 0.59% | |
| CAD | -0.50% | 0.09% | -0.11% | 0.48% | 0.07% | 0.49% | 1.08% | |
| AUD | -0.56% | 0.03% | -0.18% | 0.42% | -0.07% | 0.43% | 1.01% | |
| NZD | -1.01% | -0.40% | -0.61% | -0.00% | -0.49% | -0.43% | 0.57% | |
| CHF | -1.58% | -0.98% | -1.19% | -0.59% | -1.08% | -1.01% | -0.57% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
