Europe’s break from Russian gas creates the opening
The foundation of the SBI Research argument lies in the structural change in Europe’s energy system following the Ukraine war. For decades, European economies relied heavily on Russian pipeline gas. But that dependency collapsed rapidly after the conflict and sanctions regime disrupted supply routes such as Nord Stream.
SBI Research notes that Russia’s share of European Union pipeline gas imports fell from roughly 40% in 2021 to about 6% in 2025, citing data from the Council of the European Union. Even when pipeline gas and LNG are combined, Russia’s share was only about 13% of total EU gas imports in 2025.
The political shift away from Moscow is becoming permanent. In January 2026, the European Union adopted a regulation prohibiting imports of both LNG and pipeline gas from Russia beginning in March 2026, with transition periods for existing contracts. By 2027, Russian gas imports could effectively be eliminated altogether.
That structural shift forced Europe to find new suppliers quickly. LNG imports surged as the continent replaced pipeline deliveries with seaborne cargoes.
The rise of American LNG in EuropeIn this new energy landscape, the US has become the dominant supplier. SBI Research notes that the EU imported more than 140 billion cubic metres of LNG in 2025, and that the US supplied nearly 58% of those imports, with shipments tripling between 2021 and 2025.
The growth of US LNG exports was supported by infrastructure expansions and the rapid deployment of storage capacity. The report observes that American producers were “quick to construct floating storage tankers” to manage supply disruptions after Russian gas flows diminished. This transformation means that when European demand rises, or when global supply tightens, the US is positioned to capture a large portion of the market.
In other words, the geopolitical realignment of energy trade has placed American LNG exporters at the center of global gas markets.
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The Iran war Is tightening global gas markets
The ongoing Middle East conflict is now amplifying that dynamic. According to Bloomberg, European natural gas prices jumped sharply as the war disrupted shipments and rattled energy markets. Benchmark futures rose as much as 30% in a single day, extending the largest weekly increase since the global energy crisis.
The surge comes amid broader turmoil in energy markets. Oil prices have climbed above $100 per barrel as production curbs spread across Middle Eastern producers and the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
Gas markets are particularly vulnerable. Europe is emerging from winter with depleted storage levels, meaning it must purchase large volumes of LNG during the summer to refill reserves. At the same time, buyers in Asia are competing for the same limited pool of cargoes. “The market is slowly waking up to the reality of prolonged supply disruptions across the whole energy value chain,” Florence Schmit, an energy strategist at Rabobank, told Bloomberg. “We see supply disruptions to last for about three months now.”
Even though current prices remain below the record levels reached during the 2022-23 energy crisis, the upward momentum is significant. Dutch front-month gas futures recently traded near €64 per megawatt-hour, far above earlier forecasts.
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Qatar’s shutdown
Another factor intensifying the shortage is the sudden halt of LNG exports from QatarEnergy’s massive Ras Laffan facility, the world’s largest LNG production complex. Bloomberg reports that the plant’s closure, linked to the war, has removed a major source of supply from global markets. Analysts at Morgan Stanley warned that even a temporary disruption could eliminate the surplus many had expected in the global gas market this year. “If the Qatar LNG outage extends beyond one month, it quickly brings a deficit,” the bank’s analysts wrote.
Similarly, analysts at Goldman Sachs have already revised their forecasts upward, raising their projection for second-quarter European gas prices from €45 to about €63 per megawatt-hour.
These developments suggest that a prolonged conflict could keep global gas markets tight for months, if not longer.
Why US exporters are best positioned to benefit
In such a constrained market, US exporters are uniquely placed to capitalize. A report by Reuters highlights the key advantage. American LNG producers possess some of the largest volumes of undeclared or flexible capacity that can be redirected to spot markets.
The sudden stoppage of Qatari exports has already pushed gas prices across Europe and Asia more than 50% above year-ago levels, prompting buyers to scramble for replacement cargoes.
However, replacing those volumes is not easy. Shipping constraints, limited liquefaction capacity and long-term contracts limit how quickly supplies can be rerouted. Among the world’s major LNG exporters such as Australia, Russia, Malaysia, Nigeria and the US, American suppliers have the most flexibility to deliver cargoes quickly.
The economics is also highly favorable. Reuters notes that US exporters face average natural gas costs of roughly $3.63 per million British thermal units in 2026, meaning that even after liquefaction and shipping expenses, profit margins could exceed 200% at current international prices.
Because of lower shipping distances and established infrastructure, Europe has already become the primary destination for US LNG. In 2025, 68% of American LNG exports were sent to Europe, a trend expected to continue as European buyers outbid competitors elsewhere.
Energy profits could offset the cost of war
This surge in demand and pricing power is the core of the argument made by SBI Research. The report concludes that supply-chain disruptions triggered by the war are likely to keep both spot and forward energy prices elevated, creating a favourable environment for American energy companies.
“With the supply-supply chain triggered squeeze anchoring higher spot and forward prices across Gas and Oil,” the report states, “the US enterprises could reap benefits that more than adequately compensates the spending on war.”
In other words, the financial gains generated by rising energy exports, especially LNG shipments to Europe and Asia, could partially offset the economic burden associated with military engagement and geopolitical involvement in the conflict.
