Arvind Kejriwal may not have a dream debut as chief ministers

Arvind_Kejriwal

The Aam Aadmi Party chief’s decision to fight against Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit in forthcoming assembly polls in Delhi might turn out to be mistake as in past decade only an incumbent chief minister has lost his or her seat in an assembly poll just thrice.

If statistics hold the mirror to future, it might actually not be a dream political debut for bureaucrat-turned-politician Arvind Kejriwal.

Kejriwal who is also the chief of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) decision to fight against Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit in forthcoming assembly polls in Delhi might turn out to be mistake as in past decade only an incumbent chief minister has lost his or her seat in an assembly poll just thrice.

Interestingly, in Delhi’s case, the trend is 100% in favour of the serving CMs. But that is history. Kejriwal can turn the table if he gets to be the exception rather than the rule.
A Zee Research Group (ZRG) study of past 46 assembly elections held during the last one decade in India reveals that it doesn’t matter whichever party wins the incumbent CM’s has surely got re-elected.
Interestingly, the study also shows all three incumbent CM candidates who lost during the last decade, were done in by competition represented by experienced politicians.
Uttarakhand’s Bhuwan Chandra Khanduri, West Bengal’s Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and Mizoram’s Pu Zoramthanga are the only three candidates who lost their seats as serving CMs’ of their respective states.
The defeat margin in case of Zoramthanga and Khanduri, though, was marginal. While Zoramthanga lost out by 1256 votes, Khanduri lost by 4623 votes.
Another trend available is of Chief Ministers’- Nitish Kumar in Bihar and Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh- using the Vidhan Parishad route to get elected.

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