The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is likely to win between 38 to 46 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly, voting for which will be held on February 7, according to the India Today Group-Cicero pre-poll tracker for February 2015. The party had 28 seats in the 2013 election.
The BJP is likely to get 19 to 25 seats compared to its 2013 showing of 31 seats. The Congress is expected to slump below its 8 member winning contingent in 2013 and is likely to win 3 to 7 seats.
With a few days left for the Delhi elections, the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP could bag 43.5 per cent of the vote share, a jump of 7.5 per cent in vote share since January 2015. For both December 2014 and January 2015, the party was at 36 per cent.
The BJP’s vote share forecast has dipped in the last month by 4.5 per cent, says the pre-poll tracker. While the BJP vote share in January stood at 40 per cent, it is down to 35.5 per cent this month. The vote share in December 2014 was 39 per cent. The BJP surge seems to be evening out, says the data.
Despite the dip in vote share from what the party got in the 2013 elections when it became the single largest party, the swing is actually positive with the BJP gaining 2.4 per cent vote share. The BJP’s vote share in the 2013 elections was 33.1 per cent.
The Congress seems to be fighting a losing battle as per the data. It has seen a significant dip in vote share compared to the 2013 elections where it faced anti-incumbency. The party’s vote share has fallen by 11.5 per cent (from 24.5 per cent in December 2013 to 13 per cent in February 2015), says the pre-poll survey.
In monthly figures, the Congress vote share was 16 per cent in December 2014 as well as January 2015. The vote share of other parties and independents has taken a hit too, down from 12.9 per cent in the 2013 elections to 8 per cent in February 2015 – a fall of 4.9 per cent.
There is a distinct class divide given the surge the AAP has got in the latest tracker. Slums and lower class colonies seem to have increased their liking for AAP, the party got 53 per cent and 45 per cent in the February tracker while in January it was 40 per cent and 36 per cent in January 2015. Rural Delhi has also taken a shine to AAP with 44 per cent support in February as against 37 per cent in January. Elite colonies continue to be with the BJP while the middle-class colonies seem to be swinging towards AAP.
AAP is also doing well among age groups with voters up to 25 years siding 51 per cent with it in February, compared to 39 per cent in January. The Arvind Kejriwal-led party had 40 plus scores among four categories of voters between 18 and 55. AAP has got a 1 per cent edge over the BJP among the 56 plus years old, with it getting 39 per cent against the BJP’s 38.
Respondents from Muslim, Dalit, Jat, Gujjar and other OBC communities are firmly behind AAP at 49 per cent, 48 per cent, 49 per cent, 47 per cent and 44 per cent. Similarly, 44 per cent Sikh respondents sided with the BJP at 44 per cent. The upper castes are equally divided between the AAP and the BJP, with the Kejriwal party enjoying a slight edge.
No gender divide for AAP
More women are siding with AAP in February at 45 per cent compared to 36 per cent in January. Among men, the AAP led with 43 per cent support while its score was 36 per cent in January. The BJP and the Congress seem to have lost out here for both genders.